ANALYSIS: Budgam, Nagrota by-poll results a verdict on NC’s governance

These results are a referendum on NC’s governance and a preview of the political restructuring ahead.

Ahmad Ayaz

The Budgam and Nagrota by-elections in Jammu & Kashmir, though geographically limited, signify a deeper political shift — even if they bring no immediate effect on the NC government. These contests cannot be dismissed as routine mid-term exercises; they reflect a public audit of the National Conference (NC) government’s first year in power. The outcomes — a decisive PDP win in Budgam and a commanding BJP lead in Nagrota — highlight growing dissatisfaction with NC’s governance and signal emerging political realignments across the Union Territory.

A Referendum on NC’s Governance
The NC assumed office promising stability, development, and the restoration of trust in public institutions. Yet, the by-election results reveal widening gaps between these promises and the ground realities.

Across the Valley, public perception of the NC government has been shaped by:

• Weak administrative delivery
• Poor responsiveness to local concerns
• ⁠Minimal visible developmental thrust
• ⁠A growing disconnect between leadership and grassroots cadres
• ⁠Budgam — once an NC bastion — became the sharpest expression of this disillusionment, reflecting a clear erosion in the party’s organisational strength and public appeal.

Budgam: A Direct Rejection of NC’s Performance
The result in Budgam was not merely a surprise; it was a strategic setback that struck at the core of NC’s political credibility.

1. Organisational Erosion
NC’s dominance in Budgam historically rested on a strong booth-level structure and deep voter relationships. This by-election exposed:

• Disconnected local units
• ⁠Demotivated cadres
• ⁠Weak polling-day mobilisation
• ⁠Declining relevance of legacy politics

The party’s organisational decay was visible, sustained, and damaging.

2. Governance Discontent Fueled the Shift
Public frustration with NC’s first year in office — marked by delays in development works, alleged favouritism in administrative postings, and slow grievance redressal — decisively shaped voter behaviour.

This manifested as:

• Silent voters turning against the ruling party
• ⁠Traditional NC families switching preference
• ⁠A clear swing toward an alternative — the PDP

3. PDP’s Victory: A Governance Mandate
PDP’s Budgam win was not just a political rebound; it reflected:

• Consistent constituency-level engagement
• ⁠Clear messaging on local issues
• ⁠Strong youth outreach
• ⁠The ability to present itself as a more attentive and responsive alternative

The verdict was less an upset and more a structured rejection of NC’s governance.

Nagrota: Jammu’s Mirror to NC’s Weakening Statewide Appeal
While Budgam exposed NC’s vulnerabilities in the Valley, Nagrota underscored its diminishing relevance in Jammu.

The BJP’s sweeping victory was driven by:

• Strong cadre discipline
• ⁠Region-specific messaging
• ⁠Perception of national continuity and stability
• ⁠Absence of a credible challenge from NC

A Vacuum of Opposition in Jammu
The NC-led government failed to establish even a basic political or administrative connect in Jammu. Key shortcomings include:

• Weak district-level coordination
• ⁠Minimal rural outreach
• ⁠No effort to bridge the Jammu–Valley trust deficit
• ⁠Absence of a region-specific developmental or security narrative

Nagrota’s message was blunt:
NC may be in power, but it is far from being in control.
Two Regions, One Verdict: Public Disappointment with NC

Despite their distinct political landscapes, both regions delivered a common message.

In Budgam
Voters punished NC for administrative underperformance and political complacency.

In Nagrota
Voters reaffirmed trust in the BJP due to NC’s absence and weak regional resonance.

Together, these outcomes confirm that the NC government’s first year has failed to inspire public confidence.

NC’s Growing Strategic Crisis

The by-elections exposed deeper structural weaknesses within NC:

• Leadership disconnect from grassroots cadres
• ⁠Lack of visible governance achievements
• ⁠Absence of message discipline
• ⁠Simultaneous decline in both regions — an alarming political signal

Without urgent corrective measures, NC risks even deeper erosion heading into the Assembly elections.

PDP and BJP: Beneficiaries of NC’s Weak Performance

• PDP in the Valley
• ⁠PDP capitalised on:

The governance vacuum left by NC

• Youth frustration
• ⁠Organisational revival
• ⁠A message of accountability and presence

Its Budgam victory marks a significant political re-entry.

BJP in Jammu

BJP’s dominance was reinforced by:

• Strong organisational machinery
• ⁠Regional trust
• ⁠Strategic clarity
• ⁠Lack of a serious NC challenge

Nagrota reaffirmed BJP’s entrenched position in Jammu.

Implications for the Next Assembly Elections

The by-election verdict points toward a fragmented political future:

• BJP remains unchallenged in Jammu
• ⁠PDP, NC, and emerging players may divide the Valley vote
• ⁠Governance performance will become the central electoral theme
• ⁠A coalition government appears likely

NC’s weak performance today may drastically reduce its bargaining power tomorrow.

Conclusion: A Warning Shot for the Ruling NC

The Budgam and Nagrota by-elections are far more than routine political events. They are a loud and unmistakable message:

• NC’s governance has fallen short of public expectations
• ⁠Voters are rejecting legacy politics in favour of performance
• ⁠Accountability is redefining electoral behaviour in J&K

These results are not isolated outcomes; they are a referendum on NC’s governance and a preview of the political restructuring ahead.

(Straight Talk Communications Exclusive. The author is a Political Analyst and national TV debater. Views are personal. He can be reached at ahmadayaz08@gmail.com.)