BY THE WAY: Is Rupee at ₹90 Good or Bad for India?

A Clear Look at What It Means for Ordinary Citizens and the Economy

Dr Noour Ali Zehgeer

At a time when India’s political class remains divided and crucial policies struggle to gain public confidence, the sharp slide of the Indian rupee to ₹90 per US dollar has triggered fresh concerns. Currency fluctuations are common in growing economies, but a sudden, steep fall like this carries deeper implications. For a country as import-dependent as India, a weaker rupee is not just an economic statistic — it is a direct hit to household budgets, business stability, and national financial health.

1. The Immediate Pain: Why a Weak Rupee Hurts India
The biggest drawback of a weaker rupee is the rising cost of imports. India relies heavily on foreign goods, especially in critical sectors.

Higher Import Costs
India imports large quantities of:
Crude oil
Machinery and industrial components
Electronics and semiconductors
Chemicals
Fertilizers

Since these purchases must be made in dollars, every drop in the rupee’s value forces India to spend more. For example, even a ₹1 depreciation increases the oil import bill by ₹10,000–12,000 crore annually. Because India imports 85% of its crude needs, a fall from ₹90 to ₹95 would ripple across the entire economy.

Higher oil costs mean higher fuel prices — petrol, diesel, LPG — and eventually higher transport, food, and electricity costs. Inflation becomes unavoidable, which directly affects lower- and middle-income households.

Costlier Education and Travel Abroad
For students studying in the US, UK, Canada, or Australia, the impact is severe:
Tuition fees become higher in rupee terms

Living expenses shoot up
Families need to send more money every month
Foreign travel for holidays or medical reasons also becomes significantly costlier.

Industries Feel the Heat
Many Indian industries depend on imported raw materials and equipment. This includes:
Pharmaceuticals (APIs)
Textiles (dyes and chemicals)
Electronics (chips and components)
Automobiles
Chemical industries

With rising input costs, these industries face lower margins, reduced competitiveness, and possible job cuts.

Inflation + higher production costs = economic slowdown.

2. The Limited Bright Side: Exporters Gain, But Only Slightly
A weaker rupee does benefit exporters because their products become cheaper in the global market. Key gainers include:
IT and software services
Textiles and garments
Pharmaceuticals
Auto components
Steel
Agricultural exports

However, the benefit is not as large as it appears. Many export industries rely on imported raw materials. Since their input costs rise, the advantage of a cheaper rupee gets diluted. For example:
Textile units import dyes
Pharma companies import chemicals
Electronics manufacturers import parts

Thus, the export boost is real but limited.

3. Why Is the Rupee Falling?
Several global and domestic factors are working together:
Rising crude oil prices
A stronger US dollar due to high Federal Reserve interest rates
Foreign investors pulling money out of India
Increasing current account deficit
Sluggish domestic growth
Global geopolitical instability

When investors feel uncertain, they move toward safer assets like the US dollar, weakening currencies like the rupee.

4. What India Can Do
A falling rupee is not irreversible. With the right steps, India can stabilize the currency:

1. Strengthen forex reserves through RBI intervention.
2. Reduce oil dependence by pushing EVs and renewable energy.
3. Boost exports in electronics, IT, pharma, textiles, and defense.
4. Attract long-term FDI with stable and predictable policies.
5. Maintain fiscal discipline to improve investor confidence.
6. Promote domestic manufacturing through Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives.
7. Control inflation to build long-term currency stability.

5. The Final Word
A slow, predictable depreciation of the rupee can be normal for a growing economy. But a sudden plunge beyond ₹90 signals economic stress that impacts every citizen.
Who benefits?
Exporters
Indians earning or saving in dollars

Who suffers?
Common consumers
Students abroad
Import-heavy industries
Government finances
Overall inflation levels

If the slide continues unchecked, India could face a cycle of inflation, reduced economic activity, and financial uncertainty. Managing this moment with strong policy action and political stability is essential — because a strong rupee isn’t just about numbers, it’s about national confidence and the economic resilience of millions.
(STRAIGHT TALK COMMUNICATIONS EXCLUSIVE)